Lackluster week

27-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the day.

Last week was important week, in which market was range bound with positive bias.

China has increased interest rates by 25 point basis, which may affect commodity prices particularly metals and steel. But it looks that Asia has ignored the effects of rate increment by china.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe Markets were closed on Friday, so we have no clues from USA- Europe at least. But if we see on weekly basis Nasdaq and S&P are trading at 2 years’ higher level since last 4-5 weeks.   

Today morning ASIAN markets are trading in greens except Hangseng. Nikki is up by 46, Kospi is up by 5 points and straits is up by 7 points.

Singapore Nifty was down up to 16.50 points, but at 8.00 am it has covered all it’s lost ground and is trading at previous close point.

Today’s Call

1.      Bajaj Hindustan looks very good above Rs. 120 for short term i.e. for 5-7 days. Current price of the share is Rs. 117.70, one can trade for 2 to 5% returns from present levels. In Medium term it may reach up to 140 levels if it is closed above Rs 121. SL is Rs. 113.

2.      Buy Siemens at Rs. 809.50. Target is 836 and SL is 790.  

Weekly Review

This week is very important week as it will be expiry week for December 2010 and also for the year 2010. Market was able to close above 6000 levels. If it crosses 6040 levels on closing basis than we may reach at recent highs of 6350 levels. But until we cross this level be cautious in trade. Please book profits at each rise. 

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Imporatnt week for Direction

19-12-2010

Hi

Happy Trading for coming week. Week starting from 20^th December 2010 will be most important week. Nifty in last week has moved up by 66 points only. We have seen no major breaks in last week. Nifty has not breached recent low of 5690 and had made low of 5721 which is a good sign for moving up. But Nifty has major resistance at 6040 levels or we can say that recent high on 6^th December 2010 i.e. 6069 is crucial level for nifty.

One should not go for long unless Nifty closes 6040 levels – decisively.

If we consider recent high of 6^th December 2010 at 6069 levels and recent low of 10^th December 2010 at 5721 levels and take a retracement nifty has retraced up to 61.8% level which comes to 5950 levels. On last day of week nifty has closed at 5948 levels i.e. exactly at 61.8% retracement level. So closing of Nifty on Monday and Tuesday will decide the fate of the weeks to come. If it close above 5950 levels than it will definitely try to touch recent top of 6069 levels making double top position. Nifty may take pause near to this level and than may take decisive move.

So please watch Nifty on Monday and Tuesday very closely. Levels of 5721, 5950, 6040 and 6070 are very important levels to watch for any trading/ investment decision.

In last week I have picked up two shares mainly i.e. Reliance and Wipro. Wipro has almost achieved it’s target and Reliance is still above 1040 levels and may cross it’s target of 1080 very soon.

6040 level is important level now.

Watch Tata Steel for trading purpose and it may go up to 680 levels.

Thanks and please give your reviews.

Nifty at Important level

14-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the day.

Yesterday market has bounce back and nifty was closed at 5907. Initially market was down and one time it looks like that it will break down and may move towards 5700 levels. But in afternoon it has recovered smartly and was able to close nearly 50 points up.

Global cues are mixed today morning.

Global Indications:

USA – Dow Jones was up by 18 points where as Nasdaq was meagrely down by 12 points. FTSE and CAC were closed in green. Europe has closed in greens.

Today morning ASIAN markets are trading in narrow range. Nikki is up by 0.08, Hnesang is upo by 68 points, Kospi is up by 5 points.

Singapore Nifty is down by 9 points.

Today’s Call

Yesterday I have given Buy call for Wipro at 450 for a target of 480 in 2-4 week’s time, SL is 420, which still hold good. 

Have a eye on burger paints and hexaware computer. Have a watch on Reliance too, it is very near to break out point and is heading towards 1100 levels. If we see today reliance holds 1040 levels than it will touch 1100 levels within short time.  

Today is very important day for nifty. Nifty initially may move up and than we may see some profit booking at higher range i.e. 5950 to 5980 levels.

Summary is if you want to buy wait for clear indications please!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Wait for Clear Indications!!!!

13-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the day.

In Last week NSE has drifted down by 135.45 points or 2.26% and was able close at 5857.35.

In last week, Market was down in first four trading sessions and than on Friday, there was a pull back rally.

In Last week Indian market was underperformer as compared with global market. Global markets were not that much week as Indian market was. We can say that market is not taking cues from global market in short term.

This week is also we may see again tough war between bears and bulls. Important level for upward move is 6040 level. I once again reiterate that confirm uptrend will start in market only after market is closing above this level. Till that point one can sale at every bounce.

So far as down trend is concerned recent low of 5690 is very important level. If market breach this level on closing basis than probabilities of going down up to 5550 levels will increased.

Global Indications:

As i have said in upper para, global cues are not that much of important in recent time for Indian markets.

USA was in greens on Friday and almost all asia is trading marginally in greens at 8.00 AM.

Singapore Nifty is trading 5 points down

Today’s Call

Buy Wipro at 450 for a target of 480 in 2-4 week’s time. SL is 420.  

Summary is if you want to buy wait for clear indications please!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks

Not good time for bottom fishing

10-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the day.

Global Indications:

Global cues, particularly from USA flat. Yesterday night, Dow Jones was down by only 2 points and Nasdaq was up by 7.50 points and S & P Was up by 4.72 points. Asian market is trading down marginally. SGX Nifty is trading down by 22 points.

Global indications are flat yesterday. No clear cut indications are there from global market. 

Market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040. If Market violates 5690 low on closing basis than it may go down till 5550 – 5580 levels.

Today no picks.

Summary is that wait for bottom fishing please!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Fight is ON - without clear winner

08-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the day.

Global Indications:

Global cues, particularly from USA are not encouraging. Yesterday night, Dow Jones was up by more than 50 points but in the end it has closed down by 3 points. Asian market is trading up with marginal gains. SGX Nifty is trading down by 31 points.

Global indications are flat yesterday. No clear cut indications are there from global market. 

USA – Europe

On Monday, Dow Jones down by 3 points, , Nasdaq up by 3 points, S & P down  by 0.6 points, FTSE up by 33 points, DAX  up by 43 points appx.

Nikki +98, Kospi + 3, Strait + 4, Hengseng  -Untouch, Shanghai -1

Singapore nifty is trading down by 31 points.

Battle between bears and bulls is going on at it picks and no clear cut indications of winning either. So stay away from market till definite trend of market is clear.

Market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

Yesterday I have picked up Tata Steel and Glenmark Pharma for trading. Both had increased by 1%.

Today no picks but previous picks hold good.

Summary is that wait for clear cues to trade in the Market.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Watch out today for Indications!!!!!

07-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the day.

Yesterday, I have seen flat market and Nifty was down by 0.55 points and Sensex was up by just 14 points.

Nifty has touched a high of 6069 and than breach down it’s important levels of 6040 and 6000 levels and closed below 6000 marks i.e. at 5992.

 Global Indications:

Global indications are flat yesterday. No clear cut indications are there from global market. 

USA – Europe

On Monday, Dow Jones down by 19 points, , Nasdaq up by 4 points, S & P down  by 2 points, FTSE up by 26 points, DAX  up by 5 points appx.

Today Morning – Asia is also trading with no clear mood but has a downward bias.

Nikki -65, Kospi + 4, Strait - 12, Hengseng  -118, Shanghai -40

Singapore nifty is trading down by 3 points.

Yesterday , I have mentioned that this week is very much important, as war between bears and bulls in final stage and we may see some clear idea for trading during the week. There will be heavy fighting to win the battle. Yesterday, Bulls were in initial lead but lastly they have lost all the ground what they have won and nifty was down by just 0.55 points. This is not good indications. We may say that at each rise there will be a selling pressure.

If Nifty breaches down side recent low of 5690 than it will have support at 5550 levels. So be careful in trading in this week. If Nifty is closed above 6040 levels convincingly than and than only we can say there is change of trend and market is ready for big run.

I still maintain that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

Today watch Tata Steel for trading. I have not picked up it clearly as it is on the verge of breaching important moving averages and levels. Important Level is 650. If it breaks and moves up it may heading towards it’s recent highs i.e. 685. One can buy it with a Strict SL of 620.

Another stock to watch is Glenmark Pharma.

Summary is that wait for clear cues to trade in the Market.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Important week / Flat ????

06-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings for the week.

Last week we have seen pull back rally in the market. The sensex has gained almost 860 points after coming down almost 2000 points in last 2-3 weeks.

Global Indications:

Global indications are flat for the week though Dow Jones was able to maintain 11000 levels and trading at recent 52 weeks highs. Europe has bailed out Ireland but still Spain is waiting for it’s turn.    

USA – Europe

On Friday Dow Jones up by 20 points, , Nasdaq up by 12 , S & P up by 3.18 points, FTSE down by 22 points, DAX  down by 10 points appx.

Today Morning – Asia is also trading with upward moods

Nikki -31, Kospi - 4, Strait + 30, Hengseng  + 265, Shanghai + 25

Singapore nifty is trading up by 24 points.

So far as our market is concern, I see tough war between bulls and bears in coming week. This week is going to be very important for next move of the market. If it close above 6140 levels with low of the market above 6040 levels than we can say market has turn around and may successfully breach recent highs.

But if it breaches down side recent lows than it will have support at 5740 and 5550 levels. So be careful in trading in this week.

On the basis of Singapore Nifty we can say that market may open in positive mood but As I have written in my previous blogs, please watch Nifty carefully for 6040 level. 

I still maintain that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

On Thursday I have selected Mundraport but as i have suggested SL, it has hit the SL and I hope you have come out of it.  

Summary is that wait for clear cues to trade in the Market.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks

Nifty to touch 6040 levels??

02-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday market has shown very good recovery and has moved up sharply.

Global Indications:

Global indications are very positive today.

USA – Europe

Dow Jones up by 249 points, , Nasdaq up by 51 , S & P up by 19 points, FTSE up by 114 points, DAX  up by 114 points.

Today Morning – Asia is also trading with upward moods

Nikki +178, Kospi 17, Strait + 0.43, Hengseng  + 300, Shanghai + 10

Singapore nifty is trading up by 42 points.

Today, we may market in buying mood initially. We may see very good gap up opening today.  As I hahve written yesterday please have a eye on 6040 level. 

Yesterday, I have picked up Rajesh Exports and advised to buy it if it sustains above 126 levels. Yesterday it has crossed 126 levels for short time and then closed down at 117 levels.

Please be cautious that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

I have picked up today Mundra port today at 154 levels. Tgt is 160. SL 149. If it closes above 160 than it may move up to 171-172 levels in medium term.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Range bound market

01-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, I have written that Market is seen flat with upward bias and nifty has move up by 32.70 points.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe

Dow Jones was again down by just 46 points, , Nasdaq down by 27, FTSE down by 22 points, DAX  down by 9 points.

Today Morning – Asia – Mixed trading

Nikki +2, Kospi +5, Strait + 0.43, Hengseng – un touch, Shanghai – un touch

Singapore nifty is trading down by 18 points.

Today also trend of the market is not clear. Yesterday we have received very good GDP numbers. It was expected at 8.60% and was declared by 8.90%. The market was trading negative at that point and with very good GDP numbers, it has turned in to positive.

Today, we may see some flat market. I feel that market is trapped in to range between 5775 to 6100.  On 5^th November 2010, market has achieved a high of 6338.50 and slide down up to 5690.35 on 26^th November 2010. If we retrace it, than we get 5940 at 38% level and 6018 at 50% level. Technically we can say that unless nifty closes above these levels, we have to consider this rally as pull back rally only and market may drift down again in search of new lows.

On 21^st November 2010, I have given trading Idea for Mundra Port as follows:

“Buy Mundra Port @ Rs. 143-144 level for a tgt of Rs. 149-150 in week’s time. Please have a strict SL of Rs. 140. Mundra Port’s Chart is not good. It shows bearishness in the chart. But previous patterns suggest that after attaining each TOP it was down up to 12 to 15% from it’s recent TOP. But after that it has bounce back by 10 to 12%. Presently it is down by 12% from it’s recent picks. So it may now bounce back for 8-10%. This is a calculated risk if one will like to have it.”

If one has traded in that fashion than he might have earned 8-10% returns. Yesterday Stock has moved up to 153 and closed at 152.60.

Yesterday also i have given idea about range trading for ITC and ITC has moved up to 173 levels from the low of 166 giving 5% returns.  

Yesterday I have recommended to buy Nelco at 123 and it has went up to 126.40 giving return of almost 2% and Shanthi gear has moved up to 5%.

Today, I have picked up Rajesh Exports. Buy Rajesh Exports after 126 for a tgt of 130-32 and may run up to 137 levels in coming week. Please follow SL of 117.50. Please take a trade after 126 only and that too if you see that it sustains at 126 levels.

Please be cautious that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

 

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Ftat Market seen with upward bias30-11-2010

30-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, I have written that Market is ready to bounce back, and nifty has moved up by 78 points.

Today, we may see some flat market with positive bias initially. Fate of the market in afternoon will be decided by GDP numbers released today. It is estimated at 8.3%. Below 8% market may react sharply towards down side and above 8.60% it will react upside.   

Please be cautious that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe

Dow Jones was down by just 39.51, Which was down by more than 150 points but in last hours it has recovered sharply, Nasdaq down by 9.34, FTSE down by 117 points, DAX  down by 151 points.

Today Morning – Asia – Mixed trading

Nikki -43, Strait  -5, Hengseng -42, Shanghai -2

Singapore nifty is trading down by 9.00 points.

Many stocks are at their important support levels. If you want, you can buy it with strict SL 1 to 2% below it. ITC is very near to its below line of channel. ITC is moving between 166 to 180. It is at present at 169 and is moving up after touching it’s support level. It’s good idea to buy ITC at present levels and to sale it again near 178-180 levels to get more good returns.

Though Many realty shares looks attractive at this level, it is not advisable to buy it.

Today buy NELCO for CMP 123, TGT 128, SL 116. Buy Shantigear again for good returns.

  

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks                      

Ready to Bounce!!! Be cautious

29-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Last week Nifty was down by 169 points. Market is ready to bounce back.

We may see some retracement in the market.  Market has tested some important levels. But still i believe that market may see 5550-5600 level. The market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.   Beware of wikileaks exposure!!!!!!!!!!!!!. It may have effect on India also.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe

Dow Jones - 95.28, Nasdaq - 8.56, FTSE – 30, DAX – 30, CAC - 31

Today Morning – Asia

Nikki +30, Strait -5, Hongseng -38, Shanghai -13

Singapore nifty is trading up by 6.50 points.

Asian clues are mixed. Ireland has been bailed out by Europe. Many stocks are at their important support levels.

So please wait for some time for clear clues in the market. At present market is evenly poised. It may go down further from here or it may go up from here. So wait for some time till clear cut indications are signalled.

Today, I have picked up Petronet for short term trading CMP is 119.20, SL 114 tgt 124-26. Please be with the market before initiating any trade.  

   

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks                      

Liquidity Problems Due to Loan Scam?????? Debatable timings.......

27-11-2010

The loan scam has been burst by CBI when

1.      Mr. Suresh Kalmadi & Co and Congress were in deep trouble due to commonwealth games scandals

2.      Prime Minister Manmohan Sinh and Congress are in deep water in 2G Spectrum Scam

3.      Mr. Ashok Chavan has to resign and again congress is in trouble in Adarsh Society scam

4.      Very very poor performance of congress in Bihar

One thought has came in my mind and is that

“Housing loan scam, which very small in nature against commonwealth and 2G Spectrum scam, but has multiple effects on public. So it may be a diversion of public attention from all above points???????????

Anyway, the bribe-for-loan scam has created liquidity related questions in Market. But according to many experts, chances of affecting at least liquidity portion are very minimal as loan scam amount is very small.

The main problem is 15% cut in deposit mobilisation rate to banks. To attract deposits many banks has started increasing deposit rates. Yesterday Bank of Baroda has increased interest rates on deposits by 75 basis points. According to experts, RBI may cut CRR also.

Other major factor which will affect liquidity in market is Advance tax payments in December. According to one report, Credit growth has come down to 18 per cent, and an increase in due diligence before disbursal of loans will slow it down further and ease the liquidity situation for banks and provide breathing space to a certain extent.

FII outflows expected due to year end phenomenon, it is hard for the liquidity situation will not improve for the next couple of months.

Companies like the Adani Group, Pantaloons, the JP group and Lavasa are involved in housing loan scams. Major/ Key player is Money Matters. According to the CBI's remand application submitted in court, the list of companies allegedly favoured with loans include Krishna Group (Rs 1,000 crore), OPG Group (Rs 330 crore), BGR Energy (Rs 20 crore), Suzlon (Rs 125 crore under process), Adani, JP Hydro, JSW Power, Pantaloon, Adalite, MTECH, Lavasa, DB Realty, Pashmina, Mantri Realty, Sigrun, Entertainment World, Indore City Treasures, JP Group, Gold Sukh Project, JP Group and MBD.

Banks like central Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, etc are involved. Major thrust is on LIC Housing also.

Considering all above points liquidity problems may create problems for IPOs also. Share market may face liquidity problems also for some time and may flung in to sideways zone with negative bias.  

Little bit bounce back!!!!!!!!

                                                                          

26-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, Market was down. Today we may see little bit bounce back as retracement. According to new formula, I have learnt from Mr. Sanjaybhai Kansara, my very good friend, till the Low of NIFTY  is not above 6070, one should sale at each jump in Nifty i.e do business of “mandi”.

Global cues of Thursday are positive. USA markets were closed due to thanks giving day. The whole Europe was up. FTSE up by 49 points, DAX up by 177 pints.

Today morning whole Asia is trading flat with negative. Nikki is down by only 10 points, Kospi is down by 13 points, Shanghai is down by 8 points.

Singapore Nifty is trading down by 10 Points.

Please keep in mind that CBI had yesterday clarified that in loan scam, many company has used loan money for insider trading. They have notified this to SEBI also. 15 companies, including pantaloon. So please please be cautious in new trade. Please don’t carry long positions. Trade for short term or intraday only.

Today i have not picked up any shares specially but Please watch GTL Infra, R System Int. . Rajesh Exports looks good above 120. 

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks                      

Wait for scam clarifications and Expiry

                                                                                                                                 25-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, Market was down due to news spread due to LIC Housing Loans Scam. Initially market was up but as news of scam came out, market had slid down.

Global cues of Wednesday  is positive. Dow Jones is up by 150 points. Nasdaq is UP by 48 points, S&P is up by 17 points only. The whole Europe was up. FTSE up by 76 points, DAX up by 118 pints.

Today morning whole Asia is trading up. Nikki is up by 43 points, Kospi is down by 3 points, Shanghai is up by 19 points.

Singapore Nifty is trading up by 22 Points.

Before entering in to trade today, wait for the details of scam. Market may open in positive zones but wait for clues for loan scam details and reactions from companies and banks involved. Depth of the scam is not clear. So don’t buy shares of the bank’s or companies which are involved in scam until their roll/involvement is clarified. Their stocks had crashed yesterday but it cannot be considered as buying opportunity.   

During the Nifty’s journey from 6250 to 5850 points, many stocks had slumped down near to their major support levels. Short term traders may take this opportunity for trade putting SL slightly below that level. The stocks are:

Sr No	Name of Share	CMP	Major Support Level	Remarks
1	Ambuja Cement	140	136
2	Cipla	340	329
3	Hindalco	207	197
4	HDIL	207	170	No Buy Pl
5	IFCI	67	62
6	ITC	174	165	Trading Range 165-180
7	J P Associates	121	118
8	Mundraport	145	140
9	Nifty	5865	5550
10	Reliance	996	950
11	Reiance Capital	676	630
12	R Power	168	164
13	R com	146	130
14	Sail	178	160
15	Sterlite	170	165
16	Sesagoa	324	310	Trading Range 310-380

Looking to the market condition which is very liquid and expiry today, I have not picked up any share for today.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks