Range bound market

01-12-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, I have written that Market is seen flat with upward bias and nifty has move up by 32.70 points.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe

Dow Jones was again down by just 46 points, , Nasdaq down by 27, FTSE down by 22 points, DAX  down by 9 points.

Today Morning – Asia – Mixed trading

Nikki +2, Kospi +5, Strait + 0.43, Hengseng – un touch, Shanghai – un touch

Singapore nifty is trading down by 18 points.

Today also trend of the market is not clear. Yesterday we have received very good GDP numbers. It was expected at 8.60% and was declared by 8.90%. The market was trading negative at that point and with very good GDP numbers, it has turned in to positive.

Today, we may see some flat market. I feel that market is trapped in to range between 5775 to 6100.  On 5^th November 2010, market has achieved a high of 6338.50 and slide down up to 5690.35 on 26^th November 2010. If we retrace it, than we get 5940 at 38% level and 6018 at 50% level. Technically we can say that unless nifty closes above these levels, we have to consider this rally as pull back rally only and market may drift down again in search of new lows.

On 21^st November 2010, I have given trading Idea for Mundra Port as follows:

“Buy Mundra Port @ Rs. 143-144 level for a tgt of Rs. 149-150 in week’s time. Please have a strict SL of Rs. 140. Mundra Port’s Chart is not good. It shows bearishness in the chart. But previous patterns suggest that after attaining each TOP it was down up to 12 to 15% from it’s recent TOP. But after that it has bounce back by 10 to 12%. Presently it is down by 12% from it’s recent picks. So it may now bounce back for 8-10%. This is a calculated risk if one will like to have it.”

If one has traded in that fashion than he might have earned 8-10% returns. Yesterday Stock has moved up to 153 and closed at 152.60.

Yesterday also i have given idea about range trading for ITC and ITC has moved up to 173 levels from the low of 166 giving 5% returns.  

Yesterday I have recommended to buy Nelco at 123 and it has went up to 126.40 giving return of almost 2% and Shanthi gear has moved up to 5%.

Today, I have picked up Rajesh Exports. Buy Rajesh Exports after 126 for a tgt of 130-32 and may run up to 137 levels in coming week. Please follow SL of 117.50. Please take a trade after 126 only and that too if you see that it sustains at 126 levels.

Please be cautious that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

 

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks       

Ftat Market seen with upward bias30-11-2010

30-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, I have written that Market is ready to bounce back, and nifty has moved up by 78 points.

Today, we may see some flat market with positive bias initially. Fate of the market in afternoon will be decided by GDP numbers released today. It is estimated at 8.3%. Below 8% market may react sharply towards down side and above 8.60% it will react upside.   

Please be cautious that market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe

Dow Jones was down by just 39.51, Which was down by more than 150 points but in last hours it has recovered sharply, Nasdaq down by 9.34, FTSE down by 117 points, DAX  down by 151 points.

Today Morning – Asia – Mixed trading

Nikki -43, Strait  -5, Hengseng -42, Shanghai -2

Singapore nifty is trading down by 9.00 points.

Many stocks are at their important support levels. If you want, you can buy it with strict SL 1 to 2% below it. ITC is very near to its below line of channel. ITC is moving between 166 to 180. It is at present at 169 and is moving up after touching it’s support level. It’s good idea to buy ITC at present levels and to sale it again near 178-180 levels to get more good returns.

Though Many realty shares looks attractive at this level, it is not advisable to buy it.

Today buy NELCO for CMP 123, TGT 128, SL 116. Buy Shantigear again for good returns.

  

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks                      

Ready to Bounce!!! Be cautious

29-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Last week Nifty was down by 169 points. Market is ready to bounce back.

We may see some retracement in the market.  Market has tested some important levels. But still i believe that market may see 5550-5600 level. The market is not uptrend till low of nifty is not above 6040.   Beware of wikileaks exposure!!!!!!!!!!!!!. It may have effect on India also.

Global Indications:

USA – Europe

Dow Jones - 95.28, Nasdaq - 8.56, FTSE – 30, DAX – 30, CAC - 31

Today Morning – Asia

Nikki +30, Strait -5, Hongseng -38, Shanghai -13

Singapore nifty is trading up by 6.50 points.

Asian clues are mixed. Ireland has been bailed out by Europe. Many stocks are at their important support levels.

So please wait for some time for clear clues in the market. At present market is evenly poised. It may go down further from here or it may go up from here. So wait for some time till clear cut indications are signalled.

Today, I have picked up Petronet for short term trading CMP is 119.20, SL 114 tgt 124-26. Please be with the market before initiating any trade.  

   

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks                      

Liquidity Problems Due to Loan Scam?????? Debatable timings.......

27-11-2010

The loan scam has been burst by CBI when

1.      Mr. Suresh Kalmadi & Co and Congress were in deep trouble due to commonwealth games scandals

2.      Prime Minister Manmohan Sinh and Congress are in deep water in 2G Spectrum Scam

3.      Mr. Ashok Chavan has to resign and again congress is in trouble in Adarsh Society scam

4.      Very very poor performance of congress in Bihar

One thought has came in my mind and is that

“Housing loan scam, which very small in nature against commonwealth and 2G Spectrum scam, but has multiple effects on public. So it may be a diversion of public attention from all above points???????????

Anyway, the bribe-for-loan scam has created liquidity related questions in Market. But according to many experts, chances of affecting at least liquidity portion are very minimal as loan scam amount is very small.

The main problem is 15% cut in deposit mobilisation rate to banks. To attract deposits many banks has started increasing deposit rates. Yesterday Bank of Baroda has increased interest rates on deposits by 75 basis points. According to experts, RBI may cut CRR also.

Other major factor which will affect liquidity in market is Advance tax payments in December. According to one report, Credit growth has come down to 18 per cent, and an increase in due diligence before disbursal of loans will slow it down further and ease the liquidity situation for banks and provide breathing space to a certain extent.

FII outflows expected due to year end phenomenon, it is hard for the liquidity situation will not improve for the next couple of months.

Companies like the Adani Group, Pantaloons, the JP group and Lavasa are involved in housing loan scams. Major/ Key player is Money Matters. According to the CBI's remand application submitted in court, the list of companies allegedly favoured with loans include Krishna Group (Rs 1,000 crore), OPG Group (Rs 330 crore), BGR Energy (Rs 20 crore), Suzlon (Rs 125 crore under process), Adani, JP Hydro, JSW Power, Pantaloon, Adalite, MTECH, Lavasa, DB Realty, Pashmina, Mantri Realty, Sigrun, Entertainment World, Indore City Treasures, JP Group, Gold Sukh Project, JP Group and MBD.

Banks like central Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, etc are involved. Major thrust is on LIC Housing also.

Considering all above points liquidity problems may create problems for IPOs also. Share market may face liquidity problems also for some time and may flung in to sideways zone with negative bias.  

Little bit bounce back!!!!!!!!

                                                                          

26-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, Market was down. Today we may see little bit bounce back as retracement. According to new formula, I have learnt from Mr. Sanjaybhai Kansara, my very good friend, till the Low of NIFTY  is not above 6070, one should sale at each jump in Nifty i.e do business of “mandi”.

Global cues of Thursday are positive. USA markets were closed due to thanks giving day. The whole Europe was up. FTSE up by 49 points, DAX up by 177 pints.

Today morning whole Asia is trading flat with negative. Nikki is down by only 10 points, Kospi is down by 13 points, Shanghai is down by 8 points.

Singapore Nifty is trading down by 10 Points.

Please keep in mind that CBI had yesterday clarified that in loan scam, many company has used loan money for insider trading. They have notified this to SEBI also. 15 companies, including pantaloon. So please please be cautious in new trade. Please don’t carry long positions. Trade for short term or intraday only.

Today i have not picked up any shares specially but Please watch GTL Infra, R System Int. . Rajesh Exports looks good above 120. 

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks                      

Wait for scam clarifications and Expiry

                                                                                                                                 25-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, Market was down due to news spread due to LIC Housing Loans Scam. Initially market was up but as news of scam came out, market had slid down.

Global cues of Wednesday  is positive. Dow Jones is up by 150 points. Nasdaq is UP by 48 points, S&P is up by 17 points only. The whole Europe was up. FTSE up by 76 points, DAX up by 118 pints.

Today morning whole Asia is trading up. Nikki is up by 43 points, Kospi is down by 3 points, Shanghai is up by 19 points.

Singapore Nifty is trading up by 22 Points.

Before entering in to trade today, wait for the details of scam. Market may open in positive zones but wait for clues for loan scam details and reactions from companies and banks involved. Depth of the scam is not clear. So don’t buy shares of the bank’s or companies which are involved in scam until their roll/involvement is clarified. Their stocks had crashed yesterday but it cannot be considered as buying opportunity.   

During the Nifty’s journey from 6250 to 5850 points, many stocks had slumped down near to their major support levels. Short term traders may take this opportunity for trade putting SL slightly below that level. The stocks are:

Sr No	Name of Share	CMP	Major Support Level	Remarks
1	Ambuja Cement	140	136
2	Cipla	340	329
3	Hindalco	207	197
4	HDIL	207	170	No Buy Pl
5	IFCI	67	62
6	ITC	174	165	Trading Range 165-180
7	J P Associates	121	118
8	Mundraport	145	140
9	Nifty	5865	5550
10	Reliance	996	950
11	Reiance Capital	676	630
12	R Power	168	164
13	R com	146	130
14	Sail	178	160
15	Sterlite	170	165
16	Sesagoa	324	310	Trading Range 310-380

Looking to the market condition which is very liquid and expiry today, I have not picked up any share for today.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks

Flat Market

                                                                                                                                 24-11-2010

Hi,

Wish you all happy earnings today.

Yesterday, Market was down due to news spread that there is a problem between South Korea and North Korea.    

Global cues of Tuesday is not encouraging. Dow Jones is down by 142points. Nasdaq is down by 37 points, S&P is down by 17 points only. The whole Europe was down. FTSE down by 99 points, DAX down by 117 pints.

Today morning whole Asia is trading mixed. Nikki is down by 75 points, Hengseng is up by 170 points and , Shanghai is up by 19 points.

Singapore Nifty is trading down by 4 Points.

Today we may see some flat market after some recovery from heavy down side. It has given some hopes for recovery of Market. Today Market may flung in to positive and negative zones.

Everyday I am giving warning - please be cautious that we may see down side up to 5550 before moving to attain historical highs. I still hold that below 5950 points market may slide down up to 5550.

Overall chart of Nifty is not good. Unless Nifty closed above 6100 levels, one should sale at each jump.

Looking to the market condition which is very liquid and expiry tomorrow, I have not picked up any shares for tomorrow.

Please write your suggestions and ideas.

Thanks